2006 was
the second straight year of a
short warming trend. 2006 almost
surpassed 1998 as the hottest
year for the U.S. in this century
(see graph below). The short warming
ended in 2007 with the beginning
of a new short cooling trend.
2008 continued the cooling trend.
The
Obama/McCain presidential race
reflects the preoccupation with
national interests during cool
temperatures. Domestic issues
became increasingly important
in 2008 and this is likely to
continue if the short cooling
trend lasts through 2009. Cool
weather promotes liberal ideas
and reform minded policies. Civil
reforms allowing for more personal
freedoms will be on the government's
agenda. Although a Democrat, Obama
will dismantle or at least curtail
many federal policies and agencies
that increased centralized control.
Homeland Security will not be
dismantled but, rather, streamlined
in order to save money and insure
more personal freedom. The use
of torture, secret court order
civilian surveillance, detention
without legal representation will
be eliminated or greatly restricted.
Some measures to address civil
reform took place in the last
two years of the Bush administration
when the weather cooled. Expect
more of the same.
During
the short cool trend agriculture
gets a shot in the arm. Small
businesses will also benefit.
Prices will continue to fall for
many products and services (real
estate included) but many food
items will continue to climb in
price. Society will prefer plain
tastes and wholesomeness. Secular
schools will thrive. A proletariat
mentality will reign versus an
aristocractic one. Philosophy
and religion will be more empirical
and materialistic with an emphasis
on Evangelism and personal faith.
Many religious reforms will continue
to be made. Art and architecture
will turn more toward realism,
with garish colors and ornate,
decorative designs if the cool
weather trend continues. Science
will be fascinated by particle
theories, cell development and
manipulation, atomic energy, and
pathology versus psychiatry.
The overall trend is still warm.
The last twelve years have all
been above average. The long
warm trend that started in 1969
continues. This augurs for
an increase in totalitarianism,
bigger and stronger centralized
governments, the growth of socialistic
programs, more international wars
and political scandals, and the
rise of autocratic nations like
Iran, Russia, and China.
During
the warm 1880s an economically
depressed America witnessed a
surge in prejudice and Know-Nothing
activism in response to rising
immigration. The long warm trend
of 1918-1934 witnessed the Great
Depression, a major revival of
the Ku Klux Klan, and the rise
of Fascism in Europe and Japanese
Imperialism in Asia. The economically
stagnant decades between the mid-1970s
and the mid-1990s boosted white
supremacist groups, anti-government
militias, church arsonists, and
domestic terrorists. This was
all during the current long warm
trend that started in 1969. It
was also during this warm period
that Iraq pursued its aggression
against Kuwait, which started
the Gulf wars and the rise of
Muslim terrorism.
The
warm trend indicates several distinct
directions taken in national and
world politics. International
affairs have taken precedent over
civil matters. The slightly cooler
2007, and much cooler 2008, means
that the U.S. turned inward a
bit: the economy topped the war
in importance. But the longer
warm trend suggests that the insurgency
in Afghanistan and Iraq will continue
to be a focal point of U.S. efforts.
The rapid rise in warm temperature
is reminiscent of the rise of
Fascism in the 1920s and 1930s.
Indeed, several South American
countries are following the lead
of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Iran
and Syria are openly defying the
U.S. and contributing arms and
munitions, tactical support, and
insurgents to Iraq. A broader
war in the region looks eminent
as Iran continues its nuclear
program. Israel and the Palestines
are still having their troubles,
and the elusive Saudi Arabians
may be funding radical movements.
Terrorists are still training
in Lebanon. Pakistan is also playing
both sides in this war on terrorism.
It appears to be allowing al-Queda
fighters to cross the border into
Afghanistan at will. The assassination
of opposition leader Bhutto has
further alienated the political,
religious, and regional power
brokers in the country. Pakistan
remains a powder-key ready to
blow, armed to the teeth with
nuclear weapons. The North Korean
dilemma appears to be over but
more delays in the dismantlement
of their nuclear plants puts the
2007 agreements in jeopardy. The
defiance of Russia and Putin's
grab for extended power after
his tenure as president ends is
hauntingly reminiscent of 1930s
fascism. China and India, the
two up-and-coming behemoths, are
gaining more clout as their economies
continue to grow. Chinese companies
are already firmly entrenched
in doing oil and mineral business
in Aftrica - another hot-bed of
dissent.