Another
way to measure the surge of violence
is to combine all of the cycles
found in Wheeler’s Index
of Battles and project this single
wave into the future. I was
able to isolate seven cycles in
Wheeler’s data. Each
is statistically significant. The
least significant periods (48.44,
39.15, and 13.83-years) could
not be the result of chance more
than twice in 100 times; whereas,
the most significant cycle (10.09-years)
can only be the result of chance
7 times in 100,000! The periods
closely match those discovered
by Dewey, Tchijevsky, Vaux, and
Wheeler.
The
effectiveness of these seven cycles
combined into a single wave can
be illustrated in a short review
of history.
The
French and Indian War, which started
in 1755, was fought in North America
during a long violent period that
lasted over twenty years. Peaks
in the Cycle of Violence came
in 1751 and 1758; the cycle dropped
dramatically in 1764 accurately
predicting the waning of bloodshed
following the close of the French
and Indian War and Europe’s
Seven Years’ War in 1763.
The
American Revolutionary War started
in 1775 and raged until 1783. The
revolution started when the Cycle
of Violence was at a high (1775)
and proceeded through the following
low (1777) and high (1780), finally
ending in the year of the next
low (1783).
The
Napoleonic Wars (1796-1815) and
The War of 1812 (1812-1815) were
the next major conflicts on the
world scene. Both conflicts
raged and then ended near the
1814 peak in the Cycle of Violence.
The
Mexican War (1846-1848) was mild
in terms of lives lost but it
had far reaching political consequences. It
occurred during a low (1846) in
the Cycle of Violence. The
American Civil War, on the other
hand, was a long and bloody affair
that killed more Americans than
all other U.S. wars combined. It
lasted from 1861-1865, corresponding
to a high (1860) in the Cycle
of Violence and the following
low (1869).
The
Spanish-American War (1898) was
a minor war, which preceded the
more lengthy struggles in Africa
during the Boer War (1899-1902)
and in the Pacific during the
Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905). The
Cycle of Violence predicted a
high in violence in 1900, with
more peaceful conditions near
1909.
The
cycle’s next two highs marked
the First and Second Balkan War
(1912-1913) and World War I (1914-1918). A
peak in the cycle came in 1912
just as hostilities broke. The
next low (1915) was ineffectual
due to the chain of events started
by the Balkan escapades. The
following high in 1917 aptly pinpoints
the violence of the First World
War.
World
War II rose on the cycle’s
high (1940) and ended near its
low (1944). Interestingly,
a secondary high point came in
1946 – post war violence
continued for quite some time
as governments were toppled, new
nations were formed, rival bands
fought on, and acts of vengeance
were common.
The
Korean War (1950-1952) was fought
during the cycle’s high
of 1952. The Vietnam War
(1965-1975) started slowly under
the Cycle of Violence low of 1966. Fighting
increased rapidly as the cycle
moved to its 1970 high, and by
the next low in 1978, the war
was over. The Yom Kippur
War between Israel, Syria and
Egypt was also fought shortly
after the 1970 high point (October
6-22, 1973). One of the greatest
purges of humankind started after
the 1970 high in China. One
February 4, 1974 Mao-Tse-Tung
announces a new cultural revolution
that would eventually kill 8 million
people.
Three
years after the cycle’s
low in 1978 another high occurred. The
period from 1979-1982 was a very
violent time. Numerous engagements
broke-out worldwide: Afghanistan,
Lebanon, Africa, Ireland, South
America, The Persian Gulf, and
The Falklands. A short lull
in the cycle occurred in 1983,
with 1986 marking the next high. The
fighting in Lebanon ended in 1985
but the Iran-Iraq bloodbath would
continue for another two years
until the 1989 low in The Cycle
of Violence.
1992
marked the next high in the cycle. This
corresponded with the genocidal
killings of the Yugoslav Civil
War (1992-1995) that only ended
after massive intervention by
United Nations forces. The
Dayton, Ohio, peace agreement
divided Bosnia between a Serb
Republic and a Muslim-Croat Federation. Bosnia
would prove to be a festering
problem for peace throughout the
rest of the decade.
As
a means to forecast future periods
of war and peace, The Cycle of
Violence is tremendously useful. War
cycles, like weather forecasts,
do not tell precisely where the
predicted storms will rage but
they are reliable indicators of
when major hostilities are apt
to begin and end. The cycle
reflects the cyclical course of
worldwide violence. During
times of violence, when the cycle
is near its high point, international
tension tends to mount and aggressive
saber rattling becomes the norm
rather than the exception. During
peaceful times, when the cycle
nears its low point, agreement
and compromise among nations increases.
The
Cycle of Violence predicts that
beginning in about 2002 a long
period of increased violence is
likely. Peaks in the period
come in 2003, 2009, and 2021. The
low periods of 2006 and 2018 are
not expected to substantially
decrease the level of aggressiveness
that will plague the Earth at
this time.
