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BILL HANSEN is innovative in the field of cycle research and prognostication. His unique style of chart interpretation, a blend of ancient knowledge and modern statistical methods, results in highly accurate and practical information that you can use. Bill has contributed four valuable techniques to the field of astrology: a simplified method of natal and transit interpretation; the Relocation Plotter; the Diurnal Planet for a Year Progression technique; and the Dice Oracle. Meet Astro Bill
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WAR & PEACE page 2
by Bill Hansen
L. Tchijevsky made the first research in war cycles in 1923. Tchijevsky was a Fellow of the Archaeological Institute in Moscow. He constructed a year-by-year Index of Mass Human Excitability from 500 B.C. to 1922 by examining the records of 72 countries from around the world. The index records international and civil war battles, pandemics, riots, revolutions, insurrections, expeditions, and migrations. It reveals an unmistakable cycle averaging 11.1 years long. As an astronomer as well as historian, Tchijevsky surmised that the Sun might be involved since 11-years is the major sunspot cycle. The peaks in human excitability, however, tend to precede, sometimes by a year, peaks in solar activity. From what is known about sunspot rate–of-change and geomagnetism, this anomaly may be of no significance.
The next extensive research in war cycles was done by Raymond H. Wheeler, Chairman of the Department of Psychology at the University of Kansas and president of the Kansas Academy of Sciences. Professor Wheeler prepared two indexes. One was based on international war battles from 600 B.C. to 1943; the second covered civil war battles. He also compiled the data into The Combined Index of International War Battles and Civil War Battles 500 B.C. – 1957. The table below was developed using Wheeler’s Combined Index. It clearly shows the correlation between sunspots and war for the time period covered. Other historical periods before 1749 show a similar interconnecting pattern.
Raymond Wheeler believed that the climate has a dominant influence on human behavior. He found that climate moves in cycles from warm to cold and wet to dry. Four distinct phases are created by the climate cycle: warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry. During each of these climate phases, human activity varies. Specifically, nations tend to be built during shifts from cold to warm periods. Nations tended to fall during shifts from warm to cold periods. Within these long-term weather trends, Wheeler found that international wars are mostly warm weather associated, while civil wars are mostly cold weather related. Cold-dry periods (cold droughts) predominantly tend to foment civil wars. Wheeler’s work, therefore, supports the sunspot-war connection.[3]
SUNSPOTS AND BATTLES
Maximums and Minimums 1749-1957
Maximum / Minimum
sunspot/battle |
sunspot/battle
|
1750 1750 |
1755 1754
|
1761 1760 |
1766 1765
|
1769 1770 |
1775 1773
|
1778 1780 |
1784 1783
|
1788 1788 |
1798 1795
|
1805 1806 |
1810 1811
|
1816 1814 |
1823 1824 |
1829 1830 |
1833 1835
|
1837 1839 |
1843 1845
|
1848 1848 |
1856 1856
|
1860 1859 |
1867 1865
|
1870 1868 |
1878 1875
|
1883 1881 |
1889 1888
|
1894 1894 |
1901 1903
|
1907 1908 |
1913 1913
|
1917 1918 |
1923 1923
|
1928 1930 |
1933 1933
|
1937 1939 |
1944 1945
|
1947 1950 |
1954 1952
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1957 1957 |
------ ------
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After 1957, sunspots diminished to a minimum in 1964 – this year marked the height of peaceful conditions worldwide. The sunspot maximum of 1968 correlated with the beginning of America’s Vietnam debacle and riots in Pakistan, Malaysia, and the United States.
The Israeli Six-Day War broke out in 1967. The sunspot low of 1976 ended America’s involvement in Vietnam and brought a cessation to war in many parts of the world.
Peaceful conditions lasted only a short time after 1976. Three years later sunspots again reached maximum. Russia invaded Afghanistan in the last month of 1979 and battles raged in many parts of the world, including Lebanon from 1982-1985. The Iran-Iraq war started in 1980 and would last for eight years. Attacking in World War I waves, the Iranian hordes only tapered off when sunspots reached minimum in 1986. Struggles then were small. Rebels in El Salvador and the contras fighting the Sandinistas in Nicaragua eased their struggle during the Contadora peace initiatives. Conflicts in Africa also cooled. The Middle East was more peaceful than it had been in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Asian guerrilla wars and civil unrest were all at low levels.
Sunspots were at a high in 1991 and this was the time of the great Yugoslav Civil War (1991-1994), which pitted Serbs, Croats, and Bosnians against one another. The United States and United Nations forces also fought the Persian Gulf War against Iraq in 1991. The next sunspot minimum in 1996 was one of the lowest sunspot number periods. This coincided with the UN/US peace accord in 1994. The Yugoslav conflict also ended in 1994.
The next sunspot high in 2001 brought us the terrorist’s attack on the Trade Center in New York City and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. This started the War on Terrorism, a United States led effort to eradicate worldwide terrorism. The first target was the perpetrator of the airline hijackings and suicide attacks, Osama bin Laden, who was holed up and supported by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The Taliban were driven from power by massive U.S. air strikes and Northern Alliance ground forces (Afghans fighting the Taliban). Renewed levels of fighting also broke out between the Israelis and Palestinians, and between India and Pakistan.
THE CYCLE OF VIOLENCE
Another way to measure the surge of violence is to combine all of the cycles found in Wheeler’s Index of Battles and project this single wave into the future. I was able to isolate seven cycles in Wheeler’s data. Each is statistically significant. The least significant periods (48.44, 39.15, and 13.83-years) could not be the result of chance more than twice in 100 times; whereas, the most significant cycle (10.09-years) can only be the result of chance 7 times in 100,000! The periods closely match those discovered by Dewey, Tchijevsky, Vaux, and Wheeler.
The effectiveness of these seven cycles combined into a single wave can be illustrated in a short review of history.
The French and Indian War, which started in 1755, was fought in North America during a long violent period that lasted over twenty years. Peaks in the Cycle of Violence came in 1751 and 1758; the cycle dropped dramatically in 1764 accurately predicting the waning of bloodshed following the close of the French and Indian War and Europe’s Seven Years’ War in 1763.
The American Revolutionary War started in 1775 and raged until 1783. The revolution started when the Cycle of Violence was at a high (1775) and proceeded through the following low (1777) and high (1780), finally ending in the year of the next low (1783).
The Napoleonic Wars (1796-1815) and The War of 1812 (1812-1815) were the next major conflicts on the world scene. Both conflicts raged and then ended near the 1814 peak in the Cycle of Violence.
The Mexican War (1846-1848) was mild in terms of lives lost but it had far reaching political consequences. It occurred during a low (1846) in the Cycle of Violence. The American Civil War, on the other hand, was a long and bloody affair that killed more Americans than all other U.S. wars combined. It lasted from 1861-1865, corresponding to a high (1860) in the Cycle of Violence and the following low (1869).
The Spanish-American War (1898) was a minor war, which preceded the more lengthy struggles in Africa during the Boer War (1899-1902) and in the Pacific during the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905). The Cycle of Violence predicted a high in violence in 1900, with more peaceful conditions near 1909.
The cycle’s next two highs marked the First and Second Balkan War (1912-1913) and World War I (1914-1918). A peak in the cycle came in 1912 just as hostilities broke. The next low (1915) was ineffectual due to the chain of events started by the Balkan escapades. The following high in 1917 aptly pinpoints the violence of the First World War.
World War II rose on the cycle’s high (1940) and ended near its low (1944). Interestingly, a secondary high point came in 1946 – post war violence continued for quite some time as governments were toppled, new nations were formed, rival bands fought on, and acts of vengeance were common.
The Korean War (1950-1952) was fought during the cycle’s high of 1952. The Vietnam War (1965-1975) started slowly under the Cycle of Violence low of 1966. Fighting increased rapidly as the cycle moved to its 1970 high, and by the next low in 1978, the war was over. The Yom Kippur War between Israel, Syria and Egypt was also fought shortly after the 1970 high point (October 6-22, 1973). One of the greatest purges of humankind started after the 1970 high in China. One February 4, 1974 Mao-Tse-Tung announces a new cultural revolution that would eventually kill 8 million people.
Three years after the cycle’s low in 1978 another high occurred. The period from 1979-1982 was a very violent time. Numerous engagements broke-out worldwide: Afghanistan, Lebanon, Africa, Ireland, South America, The Persian Gulf, and The Falklands. A short lull in the cycle occurred in 1983, with 1986 marking the next high. The fighting in Lebanon ended in 1985 but the Iran-Iraq bloodbath would continue for another two years until the 1989 low in The Cycle of Violence.
1992 marked the next high in the cycle. This corresponded with the genocidal killings of the Yugoslav Civil War (1992-1995) that only ended after massive intervention by United Nations forces. The Dayton, Ohio, peace agreement divided Bosnia between a Serb Republic and a Muslim-Croat Federation. Bosnia would prove to be a festering problem for peace throughout the rest of the decade.
As a means to forecast future periods of war and peace, The Cycle of Violence is tremendously useful. War cycles, like weather forecasts, do not tell precisely where the predicted storms will rage but they are reliable indicators of when major hostilities are apt to begin and end. The cycle reflects the cyclical course of worldwide violence. During times of violence, when the cycle is near its high point, international tension tends to mount and aggressive saber rattling becomes the norm rather than the exception. During peaceful times, when the cycle nears its low point, agreement and compromise among nations increases.
The Cycle of Violence predicts that beginning in about 2002 a long period of increased violence is likely. Peaks in the period come in 2003, 2009, and 2021. The low periods of 2006 and 2018 are not expected to substantially decrease the level of aggressiveness that will plague the Earth at this time.
OTHER STUDIES
Paul Craig and Kenneth Watt, professors at the University of California, predict that the next war-death peak will be 2008 (plus or minus three years). Their calculations are based on data independent of my study. Professors Craig and Watt warned that the 1980s and 1990s would be a time of fewer war casualties, while danger lurks early in the 21st Century. Based on their calculations, the next prolonged war-death period is likely to claim 1 billion lives! That is an average of 100 million war-deaths per year over a decade. In light of the results of my research, the Craig/Watt report is shocking; it suggests a limited but lengthy nuclear arms exchange, or several long regional wars, or many small engagements throughout the world lasting for a decade or more. The terrorist attack on America that cost over 3,000 lives, a shock as great as Pearl Harbor, launched the U.S. and her allies on a worldwide manhunt for terrorists and the organizations and nations that support them. President George Bush vowed that this was would have no end until terrorism was wiped off the face of the earth. Perhaps this marks the beginning of the great hostilities predicted by Craig and Watt.
The War on Terrorism (September 11, 2001 - ) could rack up the number of war dead predicted if several regional wars erupted as a result of the U.S. led coalition against terrorist cells. The War on Terrorism threatens to ignite radical Muslims against Western and European nations throughout the world. Although these engagements are likely to be small, the sheer number of them and the duration of time needed to extricate terrorists from around the world means casualties could mount up. Large numbers of war deaths could result from a "dirty bomb", nuclear material attached to a conventional explosive. Such a weapon could be detonated in a high-density population - a sports stadium or parade - with devastation results. Terrorist attacks might also resort to biotechnology and germ warfare. Still, it would take a bigger war to account for the war dead predicted by Craig and Watt. There is a very good chance for large-scale warfare between Pakistan and India.
Pakistan and India have faced off over the disputed Kashmir region for many years. When the British Empire left India in 1947, each Indian state was given the choice of becoming a part of India or Pakistan. Muslim states joined Pakistan while predominately Hindu states remained in India. Unfortunately, when that Kashmiri prince finally decided Kashmir would accede to India, the two new nations went to war. This took place in 1948 and ended in 1949 after the United Nations intervened. Kashmir is a hot spot because it remains partitioned, like Korea, behind a mutually agreed cease-fire line. The whole of Kashmir is, therefore, neither Pakistan nor India. To resolve this issue, another futile war broke out in 1965; and in 1971 heavy fighting took place in Kashmir during another war between India and Pakistan over Bangladesh. Both today are nuclear weapon equipped. Kashmir remains politically and strategically significant to both countries. It is legendary for its beauty and its fertility. The Indus and other rivers that flow through Kashmir are also a vital water sources to Pakistan. If the al-Qaeda terrorists that fled to Pakistan after the U.S. and Afghan Northern Alliance forces toppled the ruling Taliban regime in Afghanistan manage to dislocate the rough balance of power governing Pakistan (Pakistan is run by a military dictatorship established by a coup) then large scale war between these nations is possible.
Other large-scale engagements are also likely. Water remains a vital necessity in many places around the world. Attempts by Mideast states to control each other's water supplies threaten new military conflicts. Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq are destined to exceed available water supplies. If severe shortages are faced in a growing cycle of regional drought, war may be the only survival way out. The drive to deliver water to a mushrooming population in the parched landscape of the Middle East is challenging. Turkey's Anatolia development project, for example, plans construction of 13 hydroelectric and irrigation projects on the upper reaches of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Turkey will benefit immensely from the project but the flow of the Euphrates south to Syria and Iraq will be reduced sharply. The Peace Pipeline that sends water to Syria, Iraq, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, plus expensive desalination facilities are straining to keep up with demand. The Middle East will remain a potential tinderbox for not only ideological reasons but essential liquid ones as well.
There will, no doubt, always be a key strategic place that people fight over. One such place is the Caspian Sea. If Russia provides the nuclear umbrella for a new oil consortium with Iran and Iraq, oil prices could be manipulated higher. The oil embargo of the mid-1970s that caused long lines at filling stations in the U.S. – or no fuel at all – would return with a vengeance. Russia and her consortium friends would be able to muscle the oil market if they control the Caspian Sea oil. The U.S., Europe, Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia could all suffer. The Caspian is a landlocked sea controlled by Russia and former Soviet republics – Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. There are two pipelines transporting oil out now. One goes through Russia to the Black Sea port. The other goes through Georgia’s Black Sea port. A main export pipeline, developed by the world’s big oil companies and the controlling states, will decide the fate of the biggest oil gambit in the 21st Century.
There are three possibilities for the pipeline. One is to run it through Russia. The West does not want this to happen since Russia would profit from oil and transit revenues – and could control the flow of oil. The course to the south through Iran is considered unworkable because Iran is hostile to the West. The third option is favorable to the West but is very expensive. It takes the oil 1,000 to the west from Baku in the Caspian through independent Georgia to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. Russia has blocked this development, arguing that the route is not only prohibitively expensive but dangerous as well. Bands of outlaws and terrorists could disrupt the oil flow at will along the long pipeline.
If Iran could somehow be neutralized or become friendly again, a pipeline across Iran to the Straits of Hormuz would easily feed oil to the hungry world. The Iranian route could also allow the West to provide military support to the shores of the Caspian Sea. The former Soviet republics that embrace the Caspian could then be strengthened – a la Americanized and cooperative with the West. All this is not in Russia’s best interest. So Moscow is rubbing shoulders with Tehran and trying to drive a wedge between Iran and the United States. Russia has been providing Iran with weapons and military training. Russia has helped Iran build nuclear plants and ballistic missiles and missile defense systems.[4]
Another researcher, Anita Kemp, has found a positive correlation between military alliances, arms spending, territorial disputes, and the level of international violence. Working for Seton Hall University and the Canadian Peace Research Institute, Kemp compared her data with a listing of global war-deaths from 1924-1966. The results indicate that territorial conflicts will peak around 1980 and again around 2004. The arms race will intensify near 1987, 1993-1994, 2008, and 2014-2015. Military alliances will be greater in number from 1985-1999 and from 2006-2020. She predicts a peak in war-deaths from 2003-2008!
More on next page
Article written by Bill Hansen 2010. All rights reserved.
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