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BILL HANSEN is innovative in the field of cycle research and prognostication. His unique style of chart interpretation, a blend of ancient knowledge and modern statistical methods, results in highly accurate and practical information that you can use. Bill has contributed four valuable techniques to the field of astrology: a simplified method of natal and transit interpretation; the Relocation Plotter; the Diurnal Planet for a Year Progression technique; and the Dice Oracle. Meet Astro Bill
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2012 FINANCIAL FORECAST
by Bill Hansen
The 2008 recession is the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression entitling it to be called the Great Recession. This credit/mortgage crisis triggered a worldwide depression. The mortgage debt crisis in the United States has now infested Europe and threatens the existence of the EU and its common currency. Although economists have declared the recession over, the ramifications of the financial crisis are still present. A secondary threat to long-term recovery that was predicted for last year near August 2011 occurred right to the month. Many states have huge and unsustainable government retirement and benefit programs that can face insolvency as federal stimulus money dries up. If something is not done, a second tsunami-like wave of debt will cascade over state coffers and swamp the national recovery. The biggest threat in 2012 still remains the European debt crisis. If the EU collapses by member states like Greece, Italy, Spain, and others defaulting, the U.S. will go down the same path. This scenario may not occur in 2012 but remains a real threat for the next several years.
The trillions of borrowed money used by the federal government to forestall an even greater economic collapse will eventually have to be repaid through higher taxes. Past large tax hikes - 1982, 1990, and 1993 - came at times of concern over high budget deficits. The deficits hurt in other ways too. If the government has less money to spend, entitlements will be cut. Interest rates can go higher, hurting stock prices and damaging the value of the dollar. A declining dollar raises the cost of imports and reduces the American standard of living. With vast sums tied to treasuries, there are fewer dollars left for private-sector investment, productivity, and innovation. Foreign countries own half the debt, and foreign lenders are purchasing 70-80% of new debt. This infusion of foreign investment in treasuries provides us with capital and attractive interest rates but it is not prudent to rely on this source of revenue over time. China, a major investor in our debt, has already signaled its willingness to invest elsewhere. So the current debt level is unsustainable and is likely to be the cause of the next severe recession. The next recession can also be setoff by the European debt crisis or a clash with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
THE ECONOMY AND THE STOCK MARKET
The high point of the market and the economy was the week of October 12, 2007 when the DJIA reached 14,093. The low point in the Great Recession was reached the week of March 6, 2009 at a mere 6,630. The market and economy have been limping along since, gaining strength gradually to end 2011 at 12,257.
Forecasting the economy involves 7 categories of influence.
(1) {+} Sunspots indicate the highest bull markets and the lowest bear ones. 2008 was a year of sunspot minimum, so a lowest bear market was indicated - hence, the Great Recession. The most telling factor concerning sunspots is when they first move above an average of 50 per month. Since 1871 this predictor has marked the PEAK of the market - with a sudden crash occurring soon thereafter. The last time sunspots rose above 50 was March 1998 and the market reached a monthly average high in May then abruptly fell to a bottom of 7713 in September 1998. It then rose to a peak in December 1999 with the sunspot maximum of 2000. A similar situation is likely this time. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration estimates a rise above 50 first occurred in March 2011 but fell back down until rising and staying above 50 in August. Significantly, the market hit high points between March and August and precipitously fell in the latter month. The NOAA projects the next sunspot maximum near July 2013. This will be the approximate time of the next super market high.
(2) The planetary aspects: 4 cycles point to a higher market in 2011 while 3 point lower.
{+} The Saturn-Uranus zodiacal aspect is waiting for the next up move in 2012-13 after correctly called the 2008 crash. {+} The Jupiter-Neptune cycle is primarily an inflation indicator but 4 out of the last 5 conjunctions led to a financial crisis. The last conjunction took place in 2009 and correctly indicated the severe recession. The cycle indicates higher prices for 2012. {+} Jupiter-Uranus indicates a peak in prices in 2012, followed by crisis in 2013-2015. {+} Jupiter-Pluto points to a rising market in 2012. {-} Jupiter-Saturn indicates the beginning of a protracted downward movement that will reach a low in 2013-14. {+} The Saturn-Pluto cycle signals a sharp turn up in the market in 2012.
(3) Saturn-Neptune is primarily a deflation cycle reflecting modest deflation starting in 2009. Deflation will continue during 2012 and escalate the following year as the cycle approaches a major deflationary period in 2015-2016!
(4) {+} When there are an above average number of eclipses in one year (six or seven) the market tends to be disrupted. There were 6 eclipses in 2009 for instance, and only 4 eclipses in 2010. There are six eclipses in 2011 and a brilliant total lunar on the winter solstice Dec. 21, 2010 that influences the beginning of 2011. Only three eclipses grace 2012.
(5) {+} Major down market indicators are Mars-Jupiter-Saturn aspects. They correctly indicated a correction near August and December 2007. The next Mars-Jupiter-Saturn aspect was in January 2009; again correctly predicting the Great Recession. Mars-Jupiter-Saturn again formed as aspect with one another in August 2010. The market did reach a yearly low (9686 DJIA) the week ending July 2. April 2011 is the next alignment, which correlates with the ‘above 50 sunspot’ prediction. The market did reverse severely in August dropping to 10,818, and briefly breaking this low the week ending September 23 before climbing right above 12,000 by the end of the year.
There are no Mars-Jupiter-Saturn aspects in 2012.
(6) {0} Short-term: Sun conjunction Mercury in Capricorn correlates with sharp up turns in the market beginning 25 days before the conjunction. There are no Sun/Mercury Capricorn conjunctions in 2012.
(7) {-} Dry weather is also an indication of a bear market. 2007 was the third year of drier weather. 2007, in fact, turned out to be drier than average - a dire warning of the recession that manifested. 2008 and 2009 were wetter than 2007 but, then, 2010 turned drier by an inch and 2011 drier still by two additional inches. Preliminary data shows 2011 a tad drier than 2007! This is a bad sign for the economy. The economy has indeed been struggling and the precipitation index bears this out.
(8) Lastly, there are transiting planet cycles to the U.S. chart that have repeatedly correlated with recessions and panics. The greatest economic downturns tend to be when sunspots are low, during dry weather trends, and when certain slow transits (21-year Uranus, 41-year Neptune, and 62-year Pluto) are formed to the U.S. natal chart. Saturn and the three tran-saturnian planets on one of the chart angles also indicate panic. All of these conditions were met in 2008. This was also a Saturn year (Diurnal Planet for a Year progression) for the U.S. There has been three previous crashes during Saturn years: the 1837 Cotton Crash, the 1873 Bank Collapse, and the 1990 Gulf War.
{-+} Transiting Uranus makes three hard angle aspects (0, 90, or 180-degrees) to the money planets Venus and Jupiter in 2012. Two of the three Uranus transits occur during the first half of 2012 during the remainder of a Jupiter year. There have been two previous recessions, each starting the year before a Jupiter year that continued through it. This points to the first half of 2012 as being rather lackluster in terms of a rapid recovery. The market is apt remain jittery like it has during the past couple of years. The latter half of 2012 is expected to produce more optimistic growth. July begins a Venus year and no significant economic downturns have taken place during Venus years.
In the final analysis the near future is bright for the stock market in 2012 and the economy in general as sunspots increase to the next maximum. The period near 2015 is, however, particularly troubling. A thorough analysis of this period is necessary as a debt collapse is then possible.
END
Article written by Bill Hansen 2012. All rights reserved.
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